Today / England - National League - South / Weston-super-Mare vs Dover

Weston-super-Mare vs Dover Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Weston-super-Mare

PPG 2.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWD

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Dover

PPG 1.03 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-13.6%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.6%1-18.2%1-22.9%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.2%2-19.3%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.9%3-17.0%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.5%4+-16.7%4+-22.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.3% 66.7% 1.50 -2.1%

Draw 20.0% 25.3% 3.95 -12.6%

Away win 14.7% 18.2% 5.50 -11.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 55.6% 1.80 +7.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 33.3% 3.00 +9.8%

BTTS 51.6% 54.1% 1.85 -4.5%

Home O1.5 65.1% 61.7% 1.62 +5.5%

Away O1.5 17.9% 25.3% 3.95 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.6%

H 65% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 1–1 8.2%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 3–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Weston-super-Mare2.3

Dover0.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

WESTON-SUPER-MARE · PPG 2.20

DOVER · PPG 1.03

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.56 for Home, form 2.20 vs 1.03 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Weston-super-Mare (H) 65.3%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -2.1%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -12.6%

Dover (A) 14.7%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Weston-super-Mare face Dover in England - National League - South on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Weston-super-Mare a 65% chance, the draw 20% and Dover 15%, so Weston-super-Mare are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Weston-super-Mare and 0.7 for Dover (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Weston-super-Mare are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.03 for Dover. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.8%. This match finished 2-3.

Weston-super-Mare vs Dover Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - National League - South Predictions