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Worksop Town vs Hereford Prediction— England - National League - North

National League North · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Worksop Town

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Hereford

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.9%0-24.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.1%1-111.4%1-27.1%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.3%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.1%3-15.1%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.0%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 46.5% 2.15 -1.3%

Draw 24.7% 29.9% 3.35 -10.3%

Away win 29.4% 33.3% 3.00 -7.1%

Over 2.5 53.9% 56.5% 1.77 -4.6%

Over 3.5 31.6% 34.5% 2.90 -8.4%

BTTS 54.7% 62.5% 1.60 -12.5%

Home O1.5 47.4% 50.0% 2.00 -5.2%

Away O1.5 37.3% 40.8% 2.45 -8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.7%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–2 7.1%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Worksop Town1.6

Hereford1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

WORKSOP TOWN · PPG 1.69

HEREFORD · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Worksop Town (H) 45.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -1.3%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.3%

Hereford (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Worksop Town face Hereford in England - National League - North on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Worksop Town a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Hereford 29%, so Worksop Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Worksop Town and 1.3 for Hereford (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Worksop Town are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.93 for Hereford. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.6%. This match finished 0-3.

Worksop Town vs Hereford Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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