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South Shields vs Merthyr Town Prediction— England - National League - North

National League North · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

South Shields

PPG 2.19 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Merthyr Town

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.3%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.5%1-19.2%1-24.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.6%3-17.1%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-16.3%4+-23.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.8% 67.6% 1.48 -18.9%

Draw 22.2% 23.1% 4.33 -2.3%

Away win 23.1% 19.6% 5.10 +10.7%

Over 2.5 59.8% 72.5% 1.38 -17.5%

Over 3.5 36.8% 51.3% 1.95 -28.2%

BTTS 54.8% 69.0% 1.45 -20.5%

Home O1.5 61.6% 73.5% 1.36 -16.2%

Away O1.5 35.0% 37.7% 2.65 -7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.8%

H 55% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 1–2 4.9%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Shields2.2

Merthyr Town1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH SHIELDS · PPG 2.19

MERTHYR TOWN · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.07 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

South Shields (H) 54.8%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -18.9%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -2.3%

Merthyr Town (A) 23.1%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Shields face Merthyr Town in England - National League - North on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Shields a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Merthyr Town 23%, so South Shields are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for South Shields and 1.1 for Merthyr Town (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Shields are averaging 2.19 points per game versus 1.33 for Merthyr Town. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.9%. This match finished 1-1.

South Shields vs Merthyr Town Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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