Today / England - National League - North / Southport vs Bedford Town

Southport vs Bedford Town Prediction— England - National League - North

National League North · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Southport

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLL

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bedford Town

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.0%0-24.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.0%1-110.7%1-27.1%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.4%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.1%3-15.5%3-23.7%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.6%4+-22.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 54.1% 1.85 -12.9%

Draw 23.8% 28.2% 3.55 -9.3%

Away win 29.1% 28.6% 3.50 +1.1%

Over 2.5 59.9% 56.5% 1.77 +6.0%

Over 3.5 36.8% 33.9% 2.95 +8.6%

BTTS 61.3% 59.9% 1.67 +2.4%

Home O1.5 48.8% 54.6% 1.83 -10.7%

Away O1.5 41.2% 35.7% 2.80 +15.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.3%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Southport1.8

Bedford Town1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTHPORT · PPG 1.38

BEDFORD TOWN · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.43 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Southport (H) 47.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -12.9%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -9.3%

Bedford Town (A) 29.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Southport face Bedford Town in England - National League - North on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Southport a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Bedford Town 29%, so Southport are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Southport and 1.3 for Bedford Town (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Southport are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.98 for Bedford Town. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 4-1.

Southport vs Bedford Town Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - National League - North Predictions