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King's Lynn Town vs Marine Prediction— England - National League - North

National League North · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

King's Lynn Town

PPG 1.19 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Marine

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-18.8%0-23.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.9%1-112.5%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-18.8%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.0%3-14.1%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 56.5% 1.77 -11.2%

Draw 26.4% 28.6% 3.50 -4.6%

Away win 23.4% 25.0% 4.00 -3.8%

Over 2.5 44.8% 54.1% 1.85 -17.1%

Over 3.5 25.6% 30.8% 3.25 -10.1%

BTTS 47.6% 57.1% 1.75 -16.7%

Home O1.5 40.0% 54.6% 1.83 -26.8%

Away O1.5 22.6% 30.8% 3.25 -15.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.6%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.9%

#2 1–1 12.5%

#3 2–0 10.5%

#4 0–0 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

King's Lynn Town1.4

Marine0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KING'S LYNN TOWN · PPG 1.19

MARINE · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

King's Lynn Town (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -11.2%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.6%

Marine (A) 23.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

King's Lynn Town face Marine in England - National League - North on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives King's Lynn Town a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Marine 23%, so King's Lynn Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for King's Lynn Town and 0.8 for Marine (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, King's Lynn Town are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 1.10 for Marine. This match finished 1-4.

King's Lynn Town vs Marine Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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