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Zaqatala vs Sahdag Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 23 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 12:00

Zaqatala

PPG 1.30 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Sahdag

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-112.0%0-27.9%0-33.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.8%1-112.9%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.3%2-17.0%2-24.6%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.9%3-12.5%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.4% — — —

Draw 27.4% — — —

Away win 42.2% — — —

Over 2.5 43.1% — — —

Over 3.5 22.2% — — —

BTTS 48.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.4%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–1✓ 12.0%

#3 1–0 9.8%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 1–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zaqatala1.1

Sahdag1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 22.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ZAQATALA · PPG 1.30

SAHDAG · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.30), Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Zaqatala (H) 30.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sahdag (A) 42.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Zaqatala face Sahdag in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zaqatala a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Sahdag 42%, so Sahdag are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Zaqatala and 1.3 for Sahdag (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zaqatala are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.18 for Sahdag. This match finished 0-1.

Zaqatala vs Sahdag Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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