Today / Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta / Safa vs MOIK

Safa vs MOIK Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 23 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 12:00

Safa

PPG 2.09 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

MOIK

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.09), Away POOR (0.91) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-12.5%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.1%1-16.6%1-22.4%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.0%2-18.8%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.5%3-17.7%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-013.1%4+-19.6%4+-23.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 78.0% — — —

Draw 14.1% — — —

Away win 8.0% — — —

Over 2.5 65.5% — — —

Over 3.5 43.5% — — —

BTTS 48.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.2%

H 78% / xG 2.6-0.7 / O2.5 66% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 3–0✓ 10.5%

#3 1–0 9.1%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Safa2.6

MOIK0.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.5% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SAFA · PPG 2.09

MOIK · PPG 0.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.09), Away POOR (0.91) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Safa (H) 78.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 14.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

MOIK (A) 8.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Safa face MOIK in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Safa a 78% chance, the draw 14% and MOIK 8%, so Safa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Safa and 0.7 for MOIK (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Safa are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 0.91 for MOIK. This match finished 3-0.

Safa vs MOIK Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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