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Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 9 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 10:30

Pohang Steelers

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Gwangju

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDL

// Model verdict

Home 60% chance

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-024.9%0-17.4%0-21.1%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-027.2%1-18.1%1-21.2%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.9%2-14.4%2-20.7%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.4%3-11.6%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-10.6%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% 61.0% 1.64 -7.7%

Draw 33.7% 28.6% 3.50 +17.9%

Away win 10.0% 17.4% 5.75 -42.5%

Over 2.5 16.4% 43.5% 2.30 -62.3%

Over 3.5 5.3% 23.1% 4.33 -77.0%

BTTS 17.1% 46.5% 2.15 -63.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob17.1%

H 56% / xG 1.1-0.3 / U2.5 16% / NoBTTS 17%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 27.2%

#2 0–0 24.9%

#3 2–0 14.9%

#4 1–1 8.1%

#5 0–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pohang Steelers1.1

Gwangju0.3

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 16.4% · O3.5 PROB 5.3%

Form & verdict PPG

POHANG STEELERS · PPG 1.14

GWANGJU · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.14) > Away POOR (0.40)

Win probability 1X2

Pohang Steelers (H) 56.3%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -7.7%

Draw 33.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +17.9%

Gwangju (A) 10.0%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -42.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pohang Steelers face Gwangju in South-Korea - K League 1 on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pohang Steelers a 56% chance, the draw 34% and Gwangju 10%, so Pohang Steelers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Pohang Steelers and 0.3 for Gwangju (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 16% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 17% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.40 for Gwangju. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +17.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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