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Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Qingdao Youth Island

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Shandong Luneng

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.5%0-24.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.0%1-111.9%1-26.4%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.5%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.6%3-15.0%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 40.3% 2.48 +13.1%

Draw 26.0% 28.2% 3.55 -4.6%

Away win 28.4% 40.3% 2.48 -17.7%

Over 2.5 50.2% 63.7% 1.57 -21.2%

Over 3.5 30.9% 40.8% 2.45 -24.3%

BTTS 53.0% 69.0% 1.45 -23.2%

Home O1.5 47.4% 50.0% 2.00 -5.2%

Away O1.5 35.1% 50.0% 2.00 -29.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–0✓ 8.7%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qingdao Youth Island1.6

Shandong Luneng1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

QINGDAO YOUTH ISLAND · PPG 1.67

SHANDONG LUNENG · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Qingdao Youth Island (H) 45.6%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +13.1%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -4.6%

Shandong Luneng (A) 28.4%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qingdao Youth Island face Shandong Luneng in China - Super League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Shandong Luneng 28%, so Qingdao Youth Island are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.1 for Shandong Luneng (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.36 for Shandong Luneng. This match finished 2-0.

Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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