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Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Beijing Guoan

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDD

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Yunnan Yukun

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.5%0-21.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.9%1-16.6%1-24.4%1-31.9%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.5%2-18.7%2-25.8%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.8%3-17.7%3-25.1%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-19.7%4+-26.5%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.7% 69.9% 1.43 -17.5%

Draw 20.3% 21.7% 4.60 -4.0%

Away win 22.1% 17.5% 5.70 +15.6%

Over 2.5 67.3% 78.1% 1.28 -13.9%

Over 3.5 47.6% 57.8% 1.73 -17.6%

BTTS 63.2% 73.5% 1.36 -14.1%

Home O1.5 65.1% 78.1% 1.28 -16.7%

Away O1.5 41.2% 40.8% 2.45 +0.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.2%

H 58% / xG 2.7-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.6%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 3–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 5.8%

#5 1–2 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Beijing Guoan2.7

Yunnan Yukun1.3

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BEIJING GUOAN · PPG 1.75

YUNNAN YUKUN · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.32 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Beijing Guoan (H) 57.7%

ODDS 1.43 · IMPLIED 69.9% EV -17.5%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -4.0%

Yunnan Yukun (A) 22.1%

ODDS 5.70 · IMPLIED 17.5% EV +15.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Beijing Guoan face Yunnan Yukun in China - Super League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Beijing Guoan a 58% chance, the draw 20% and Yunnan Yukun 22%, so Beijing Guoan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Beijing Guoan and 1.3 for Yunnan Yukun (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Yunnan Yukun. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +8.3%. This match finished 3-3.

Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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