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Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju Utd Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 9 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 10:30

Daejeon Citizen

PPG 0.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Jeju Utd

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.7%0-115.6%0-25.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.1%1-112.4%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.2%2-14.9%2-21.7%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.9%3-11.3%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% 57.8% 1.73 -40.0%

Draw 36.9% 28.2% 3.55 +31.0%

Away win 28.4% 21.1% 4.75 +34.9%

Over 2.5 18.6% 50.0% 2.00 -62.8%

Over 3.5 6.3% 28.2% 3.55 -77.6%

BTTS 27.2% 54.1% 1.85 -49.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob27.2%

D 37% / xG 0.8-0.7 / U2.5 19% / NoBTTS 27%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.7%

#2 1–0 18.1%

#3 0–1✓ 15.6%

#4 1–1 12.4%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Daejeon Citizen0.8

Jeju Utd0.7

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 18.6% · O3.5 PROB 6.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DAEJEON CITIZEN · PPG 0.50

JEJU UTD · PPG 1.33

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

37%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Daejeon Citizen (H) 34.7%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -40.0%

Draw 36.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +31.0%

Jeju Utd (A) 28.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +34.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Daejeon Citizen face Jeju Utd in South-Korea - K League 1 on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Daejeon Citizen a 35% chance, the draw 37% and Jeju Utd 28%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for Daejeon Citizen and 0.7 for Jeju Utd (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 19% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 27% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Daejeon Citizen are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.33 for Jeju Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +34.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju Utd Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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