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Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:35

Sichuan Jiuniu

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Hangzhou Greentown

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.8% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.2%0-22.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.7%1-19.0%1-26.0%1-32.7%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.1%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.0%3-16.7%3-24.5%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-15.8%4+-23.8%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 39.7% 2.52 +30.0%

Draw 21.9% 27.4% 3.65 -12.0%

Away win 26.6% 41.7% 2.40 -21.7%

Over 2.5 64.8% 67.6% 1.48 -4.1%

Over 3.5 43.5% 45.5% 2.20 -4.3%

BTTS 63.2% 71.4% 1.40 -11.5%

Home O1.5 59.6% 52.4% 1.91 +13.8%

Away O1.5 41.2% 54.1% 1.85 -23.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.2%

H 52% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 6.0%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sichuan Jiuniu2.1

Hangzhou Greentown1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SICHUAN JIUNIU · PPG 1.73

HANGZHOU GREENTOWN · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sichuan Jiuniu (H) 51.6%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV +30.0%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -12.0%

Hangzhou Greentown (A) 26.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -21.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sichuan Jiuniu face Hangzhou Greentown in China - Super League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Hangzhou Greentown 27%, so Sichuan Jiuniu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.3 for Hangzhou Greentown (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.00 for Hangzhou Greentown. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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