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Chengdu Better City vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:35

Chengdu Better City

PPG 2.18 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLW

4 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Shanghai Shenhua

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.4%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.1%1-18.1%1-24.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.6%2-19.6%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-17.7%3-23.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-18.1%4+-24.0%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 53.2% 1.88 +5.7%

Draw 21.8% 25.3% 3.95 -8.3%

Away win 22.0% 30.3% 3.30 -16.4%

Over 2.5 63.1% 71.4% 1.40 -11.7%

Over 3.5 39.4% 50.0% 2.00 -21.2%

BTTS 58.6% 73.5% 1.36 -20.3%

Home O1.5 65.1% 64.5% 1.55 +0.9%

Away O1.5 30.7% 47.6% 2.10 -35.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-5

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.6%

H 56% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–2 4.0%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chengdu Better City2.4

Shanghai Shenhua1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CHENGDU BETTER CITY · PPG 2.18

SHANGHAI SHENHUA · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.39 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Chengdu Better City (H) 56.2%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV +5.7%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -8.3%

Shanghai Shenhua (A) 22.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chengdu Better City face Shanghai Shenhua in China - Super League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chengdu Better City a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Shanghai Shenhua 22%, so Chengdu Better City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Chengdu Better City and 1.0 for Shanghai Shenhua (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chengdu Better City are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 1.36 for Shanghai Shenhua. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.1%. This match finished 4-5.

Chengdu Better City vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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