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Yeovil Town vs Gateshead Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:30

Yeovil Town

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Gateshead

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-18.2%0-24.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.9%1-112.3%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-19.1%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.0%3-14.5%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% 47.6% 2.10 -5.9%

Draw 26.4% 30.8% 3.25 -8.5%

Away win 28.8% 31.3% 3.20 -4.7%

Over 2.5 50.2% 52.6% 1.90 -4.6%

Over 3.5 28.4% 30.8% 3.25 -4.6%

BTTS 53.0% 58.8% 1.70 -9.9%

Home O1.5 40.0% 48.8% 2.05 -18.0%

Away O1.5 35.6% 36.4% 2.75 -2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–0 8.1%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yeovil Town1.5

Gateshead1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

YEOVIL TOWN · PPG 1.36

GATESHEAD · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Yeovil Town (H) 44.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -5.9%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.5%

Gateshead (A) 28.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yeovil Town face Gateshead in England - National League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yeovil Town a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Gateshead 29%, so Yeovil Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Yeovil Town and 1.1 for Gateshead (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yeovil Town are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.10 for Gateshead. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Yeovil Town vs Gateshead Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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