Today / England - National League / Sutton Utd vs Hartlepool

Sutton Utd vs Hartlepool Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:30

Sutton Utd

PPG 1.53 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Hartlepool

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-110.3%0-25.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.7%1-113.1%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.1%2-18.3%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.4%3-13.5%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 42.9% 2.33 +1.1%

Draw 28.0% 28.2% 3.55 -0.4%

Away win 28.6% 38.5% 2.60 -15.4%

Over 2.5 44.8% 59.9% 1.67 -25.2%

Over 3.5 25.6% 37.0% 2.70 -18.5%

BTTS 49.1% 65.4% 1.53 -24.9%

Home O1.5 37.8% 50.0% 2.00 -24.4%

Away O1.5 32.4% 46.5% 2.15 -30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.1%

H 43% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 2–1✓ 8.3%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sutton Utd1.3

Hartlepool1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SUTTON UTD · PPG 1.53

HARTLEPOOL · PPG 1.67

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.24, combined xG 2.30 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sutton Utd (H) 43.4%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +1.1%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -0.4%

Hartlepool (A) 28.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sutton Utd face Hartlepool in England - National League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sutton Utd a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Hartlepool 29%, so Sutton Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sutton Utd and 1.0 for Hartlepool (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sutton Utd are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.67 for Hartlepool. This match finished 2-1.

Sutton Utd vs Hartlepool Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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