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Solihull Moors vs Southend Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:30

Solihull Moors

PPG 1.10 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Southend

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-18.0%0-28.0%0-35.3%0-4+4.2%1 1-04.9%1-19.7%1-29.7%1-36.5%1-4+5.1%2 2-03.0%2-16.0%2-26.0%2-34.0%2-4+3.1%3 3-01.2%3-12.4%3-22.4%3-31.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% 27.0% 3.70 -7.6%

Draw 21.6% 27.8% 3.60 -13.3%

Away win 54.8% 55.6% 1.80 -1.4%

Over 2.5 59.8% 58.8% 1.70 +1.7%

Over 3.5 36.8% 36.4% 2.75 +1.2%

BTTS 56.3% 62.5% 1.60 -9.9%

Home O1.5 33.1% 36.4% 2.75 -9.0%

Away O1.5 55.2% 57.8% 1.73 -4.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 43%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob56.3%

A 55% / xG 1.2-2.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.7%

#2 1–1 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.0%

#4 1–3✓ 6.5%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Solihull Moors1.2

Southend2.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SOLIHULL MOORS · PPG 1.10

SOUTHEND · PPG 1.73

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.78 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Solihull Moors (H) 23.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.6%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -13.3%

Southend (A) 54.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Solihull Moors face Southend in England - National League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Solihull Moors a 24% chance, the draw 22% and Southend 55%, so Southend are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Solihull Moors and 2.0 for Southend (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Solihull Moors are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.73 for Southend. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.7%. This match finished 1-3.

Solihull Moors vs Southend Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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