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Forest Green vs Boreham Wood Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:30

Forest Green

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Boreham Wood

PPG 1.84 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-13.9%0-23.2%0-31.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-05.0%1-18.2%1-26.7%1-33.7%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.2%2-18.6%2-27.0%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.6%3-16.0%3-24.9%3-32.7%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-15.1%4+-24.2%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 44.4% 2.25 +7.5%

Draw 22.7% 28.2% 3.55 -11.7%

Away win 29.6% 37.0% 2.70 -12.0%

Over 2.5 67.1% 66.7% 1.50 +0.7%

Over 3.5 43.5% 43.5% 2.30 +0.1%

BTTS 63.2% 70.4% 1.42 -10.3%

Home O1.5 59.6% 55.6% 1.80 +7.3%

Away O1.5 48.5% 50.0% 2.00 -3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.2%

H 48% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Forest Green2.1

Boreham Wood1.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FOREST GREEN · PPG 2.11

BOREHAM WOOD · PPG 1.84

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Forest Green (H) 47.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +7.5%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -11.7%

Boreham Wood (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Forest Green face Boreham Wood in England - National League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Forest Green a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Boreham Wood 30%, so Forest Green are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Forest Green and 1.6 for Boreham Wood (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Forest Green are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.84 for Boreham Wood. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.4%. This match finished 0-3.

Forest Green vs Boreham Wood Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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