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FC Halifax Town vs Tamworth Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:30

FC Halifax Town

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

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4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tamworth

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+23.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.0%0-23.4%0-31.9%0-4+1.2%1 1-04.9%1-18.2%1-26.9%1-33.9%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.0%2-18.4%2-27.1%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-03.4%3-15.8%3-24.9%3-32.7%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.8%4+-24.0%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 46.5% 2.15 -4.8%

Draw 21.8% 30.3% 3.30 -16.8%

Away win 33.9% 33.3% 3.00 +1.7%

Over 2.5 67.3% 54.6% 1.83 +23.2%

Over 3.5 43.5% 33.3% 3.00 +30.5%

BTTS 63.2% 60.6% 1.65 +4.3%

Home O1.5 59.1% 48.8% 2.05 +21.1%

Away O1.5 48.5% 39.2% 2.55 +23.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.2%

H 44% / xG 2.1-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Halifax Town2.1

Tamworth1.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FC HALIFAX TOWN · PPG 1.31

TAMWORTH · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Halifax Town (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -4.8%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.8%

Tamworth (A) 33.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Halifax Town face Tamworth in England - National League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Halifax Town a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Tamworth 34%, so FC Halifax Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for FC Halifax Town and 1.7 for Tamworth (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Halifax Town are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.17 for Tamworth. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +30.5%. This match finished 4-1.

FC Halifax Town vs Tamworth Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - National League Predictions