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Eastleigh vs Scunthorpe Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:30

Eastleigh

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWD

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Scunthorpe

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.1%0-25.5%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.4%1-112.6%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.2%2-18.6%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.3%3-14.0%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% 32.3% 3.10 +32.4%

Draw 27.7% 28.6% 3.50 -1.8%

Away win 29.6% 48.8% 2.05 -23.6%

Over 2.5 50.1% 58.8% 1.70 -14.8%

Over 3.5 28.3% 36.4% 2.75 -13.3%

BTTS 53.0% 63.7% 1.57 -16.8%

Home O1.5 37.8% 40.8% 2.45 -7.4%

Away O1.5 37.3% 52.6% 1.90 -29.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.0%

H 43% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 0–0 7.6%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eastleigh1.4

Scunthorpe1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

EASTLEIGH · PPG 1.57

SCUNTHORPE · PPG 1.34

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Eastleigh (H) 42.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +32.4%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.8%

Scunthorpe (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -23.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eastleigh face Scunthorpe in England - National League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eastleigh a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Scunthorpe 30%, so Eastleigh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Eastleigh and 1.2 for Scunthorpe (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eastleigh are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.34 for Scunthorpe. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.3%. This match finished 3-2.

Eastleigh vs Scunthorpe Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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