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Boston United vs Altrincham Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:30

Boston United

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

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1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Altrincham

PPG 0.84 · AWAY

LAST 5

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// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-18.3%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.1%1-112.3%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.1%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.1%3-14.5%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 57.8% 1.73 -13.2%

Draw 26.5% 27.0% 3.70 -1.2%

Away win 23.4% 24.4% 4.10 -2.4%

Over 2.5 44.8% 58.8% 1.70 -23.8%

Over 3.5 26.6% 35.7% 2.80 -15.3%

BTTS 47.6% 60.6% 1.65 -21.5%

Home O1.5 40.0% 58.8% 1.70 -32.0%

Away O1.5 22.8% 33.3% 3.00 -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 14.1%

#2 1–1 12.3%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 0–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boston United1.5

Altrincham0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BOSTON UNITED · PPG 1.07

ALTRINCHAM · PPG 0.84

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Boston United (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -13.2%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -1.2%

Altrincham (A) 23.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boston United face Altrincham in England - National League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boston United a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Altrincham 23%, so Boston United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Boston United and 0.9 for Altrincham (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boston United are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.84 for Altrincham. This match finished 1-0.

Boston United vs Altrincham Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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