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PSIM Yogyakarta vs Persija Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 29 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 08:30

PSIM Yogyakarta

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Persija

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-110.4%0-28.5%0-34.7%0-4+2.8%1 1-07.1%1-111.6%1-29.5%1-35.2%1-4+3.1%2 2-03.9%2-16.5%2-25.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.5%3-12.4%3-22.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.9% 26.0% 3.85 -0.3%

Draw 24.5% 28.6% 3.50 -14.2%

Away win 49.7% 55.6% 1.80 -10.5%

Over 2.5 52.2% 54.1% 1.85 -3.4%

Over 3.5 30.0% 31.3% 3.20 -4.0%

BTTS 54.3% 57.8% 1.73 -6.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.3%

A 50% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.6%

#2 0–1 10.4%

#3 1–2 9.5%

#4 0–2 8.5%

#5 1–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PSIM Yogyakarta1.1

Persija1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PSIM YOGYAKARTA · PPG 1.38

PERSIJA · PPG 1.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.93) vs Home AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

PSIM Yogyakarta (H) 25.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -0.3%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.2%

Persija (A) 49.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

PSIM Yogyakarta face Persija in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PSIM Yogyakarta a 26% chance, the draw 25% and Persija 50%, so Persija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for PSIM Yogyakarta and 1.6 for Persija (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PSIM Yogyakarta are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.93 for Persija. This match finished 1-1.

PSIM Yogyakarta vs Persija Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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