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Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Hebei Kungfu Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:30

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Hebei Kungfu

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-18.0%0-24.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.9%1-112.2%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.3%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.6%3-14.7%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 46.5% 2.15 -0.9%

Draw 24.6% 31.3% 3.20 -12.8%

Away win 29.3% 32.3% 3.10 -5.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 50.0% 2.00 +7.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 27.8% 3.60 +13.8%

BTTS 54.7% 56.5% 1.77 -3.2%

Home O1.5 40.2% 45.5% 2.20 -11.6%

Away O1.5 32.3% 35.1% 2.85 -7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heilongjiang Lava Spring1.5

Hebei Kungfu1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HEILONGJIANG LAVA SPRING · PPG 1.11

HEBEI KUNGFU · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Heilongjiang Lava Spring (H) 46.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -0.9%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.8%

Hebei Kungfu (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heilongjiang Lava Spring face Hebei Kungfu in China - League One on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heilongjiang Lava Spring a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Hebei Kungfu 29%, so Heilongjiang Lava Spring are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Heilongjiang Lava Spring and 1.0 for Hebei Kungfu (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heilongjiang Lava Spring are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.67 for Hebei Kungfu. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Hebei Kungfu Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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