Monterrey vs Puebla Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Mexico - Liga MX Clausura - 16 Estadio BBVA· Monterrey Wednesday, April 22, 2026 03:05

Monterrey PPG 0.88

2-1 HIT CS4

Puebla PPG 0.57

Home· +5.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Monterrey face Puebla in Mexico - Liga MX on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monterrey a 67% chance, the draw 21% and Puebla 12%, so Monterrey are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Monterrey and 0.6 for Puebla (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monterrey are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 0.57 for Puebla. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 67.0%

Odds: 1.57 EV: +5.2%

Draw 21.0%

Odds: 4.20 EV: -11.8%

Away 12.0%

Odds: 5.10 EV: -38.8%

Model lean: Home

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.3% Odds: 1.57 -27.3%

Over 3.5 24.8% Odds: 2.40 -40.5%

BTTS 40.2% Odds: 1.60 -35.7%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 2-1 ✔

5th 3-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Monterrey

1.88

Puebla

0.64

Model SuggestionHome +5.2% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.88) > Away POOR (0.57)