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Monterrey vs Puebla Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Clausura - 16 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 03:05

Monterrey

PPG 0.88 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Puebla

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-15.1%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.1%1-19.7%1-23.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.2%2-19.1%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.9%3-15.7%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-14.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.0% 63.7% 1.57 +5.2%

Draw 21.0% 23.8% 4.20 -11.8%

Away win 12.0% 19.6% 5.10 -38.8%

Over 2.5 46.3% 63.7% 1.57 -27.3%

Over 3.5 24.8% 41.7% 2.40 -40.5%

BTTS 40.2% 62.5% 1.60 -35.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 16.3%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob40.2%

H 67% / xG 1.9-0.6 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.1%

#2 2–0 14.2%

#3 1–1 9.7%

#4 2–1✓ 9.1%

#5 3–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monterrey1.9

Puebla0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.3% · O3.5 PROB 24.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTERREY · PPG 0.88

PUEBLA · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.88) > Away POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Monterrey (H) 67.0%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +5.2%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -11.8%

Puebla (A) 12.0%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -38.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monterrey face Puebla in Mexico - Liga MX on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monterrey a 67% chance, the draw 21% and Puebla 12%, so Monterrey are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Monterrey and 0.6 for Puebla (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monterrey are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 0.57 for Puebla. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Monterrey vs Puebla Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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