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Club Leon vs CF America Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Clausura - 16 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 03:06

Club Leon

PPG 2.14 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

CF America

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-111.8%0-27.1%0-32.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.9%1-113.2%1-28.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.1%2-17.4%2-24.5%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.3%3-12.7%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.7% 31.7% 3.15 +6.2%

Draw 28.2% 29.9% 3.35 -5.5%

Away win 38.1% 45.5% 2.20 -16.2%

Over 2.5 41.1% 50.0% 2.00 -17.8%

Over 3.5 20.6% 28.2% 3.55 -26.9%

BTTS 47.2% 56.5% 1.77 -16.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 16.3%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob47.2%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–1 11.8%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 0–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Leon1.1

CF America1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB LEON · PPG 2.14

CF AMERICA · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs P(Home)=33.7%

Win probability 1X2

Club Leon (H) 33.7%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +6.2%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -5.5%

CF America (A) 38.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -16.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Leon face CF America in Mexico - Liga MX on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Leon a 34% chance, the draw 28% and CF America 38%, so CF America are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Club Leon and 1.2 for CF America (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Leon are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.29 for CF America. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 2-3.

Club Leon vs CF America Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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