Club Leon vs CF America Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Mexico - Liga MX Clausura - 16 Estadio Leon· Leon Wednesday, April 22, 2026 03:06

Club Leon PPG 2.14

2-3 MISS

CF America PPG 1.29

Home· +6.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Leon face CF America in Mexico - Liga MX on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Leon a 34% chance, the draw 28% and CF America 38%, so CF America are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Club Leon and 1.2 for CF America (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Leon are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.29 for CF America. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 2-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 33.7%

Odds: 3.15 EV: +6.2%

Draw 28.2%

Odds: 3.35 EV: -5.5%

Away 38.1%

Odds: 2.20 EV: -16.2%

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 41.1% Odds: 2.00 -17.8%

Over 3.5 20.6% Odds: 3.55 -26.9%

BTTS 47.2% Odds: 1.77 -16.5%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Club Leon

1.12

CF America

1.21

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5/Under 47%

BTTS/No 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 15.2%

Bet Hit 60% (5 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs P(Home)=33.7%