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Puerto Cabello vs Trujillanos Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - 12 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 22:00

Puerto Cabello

PPG 1.40 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Trujillanos

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-13.0%0-20.8%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.6%1-17.0%1-21.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.8%2-18.1%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.3%3-16.3%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-012.4%4+-16.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 78.3% 78.1% 1.28 +0.2%

Draw 15.2% 23.1% 4.33 -34.2%

Away win 6.5% 9.3% 10.80 -29.8%

Over 2.5 54.1% 51.8% 1.93 +4.4%

Over 3.5 31.8% 29.9% 3.35 +6.5%

BTTS 36.3% 42.6% 2.35 -14.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob36.3%

H 78% / xG 2.3-0.5 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.8%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 3–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 4–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puerto Cabello2.3

Trujillanos0.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PUERTO CABELLO · PPG 1.40

TRUJILLANOS · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.40), Away POOR (0.20) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Puerto Cabello (H) 78.3%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV +0.2%

Draw 15.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -34.2%

Trujillanos (A) 6.5%

ODDS 10.80 · IMPLIED 9.3% EV -29.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puerto Cabello face Trujillanos in Venezuela - Primera División on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puerto Cabello a 78% chance, the draw 15% and Trujillanos 7%, so Puerto Cabello are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Puerto Cabello and 0.5 for Trujillanos (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puerto Cabello are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.20 for Trujillanos. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Puerto Cabello vs Trujillanos Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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