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Brighton vs Chelsea Prediction— England - Premier League

Regular Season - 34 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 19:00

Brighton

PPG 1.69 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Chelsea

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-17.6%0-24.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.2%1-111.7%1-27.5%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.1%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.7%3-14.7%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 42.0% 2.38 +4.0%

Draw 24.9% 27.4% 3.65 -9.1%

Away win 31.4% 37.6% 2.66 -16.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 61.7% 1.62 -13.3%

Over 3.5 31.2% 39.2% 2.55 -20.4%

BTTS 56.7% 65.4% 1.53 -13.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob56.7%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 9.2%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 0–1 7.6%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brighton1.5

Chelsea1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BRIGHTON · PPG 1.69

CHELSEA · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.69), Away GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

Brighton (H) 43.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +4.0%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.1%

Chelsea (A) 31.4%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brighton face Chelsea in England - Premier League on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brighton a 44% chance, the draw 25% and Chelsea 31%, so Brighton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Brighton and 1.3 for Chelsea (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brighton are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.56 for Chelsea. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Brighton vs Chelsea Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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