Today / Scotland - Championship / Dunfermline vs St. Johnstone

Dunfermline vs St. Johnstone Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Regular Season - 34 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 18:45

Dunfermline

PPG 1.56 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

St. Johnstone

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: GOOD (1.56) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-110.6%0-27.4%0-33.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.9%1-112.5%1-28.8%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.3%2-17.4%2-25.2%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.1%3-12.9%3-22.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 23.1% 4.33 +37.7%

Draw 26.3% 29.9% 3.35 -11.9%

Away win 41.9% 56.2% 1.78 -25.4%

Over 2.5 47.8% — — —

Over 3.5 26.1% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.3%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–1 10.6%

#3 1–0 8.9%

#4 1–2 8.8%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dunfermline1.2

St. Johnstone1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNFERMLINE · PPG 1.56

ST. JOHNSTONE · PPG 2.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.56) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Dunfermline (H) 31.8%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +37.7%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.9%

St. Johnstone (A) 41.9%

ODDS 1.78 · IMPLIED 56.2% EV -25.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dunfermline face St. Johnstone in Scotland - Championship on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dunfermline a 32% chance, the draw 26% and St. Johnstone 42%, so St. Johnstone are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Dunfermline and 1.4 for St. Johnstone (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dunfermline are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 2.00 for St. Johnstone. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +37.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Dunfermline vs St. Johnstone Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - Championship Predictions