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Macclesfield vs Southport Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 41 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 18:45

Macclesfield

PPG 1.77 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Southport

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+19.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.0%0-22.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.4%1-18.7%1-25.9%1-32.7%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.9%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.0%3-16.8%3-24.6%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-16.1%4+-24.1%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 61.7% 1.62 -9.4%

Draw 20.5% 26.7% 3.75 -23.1%

Away win 23.6% 21.7% 4.60 +8.6%

Over 2.5 68.3% 57.1% 1.75 +19.5%

Over 3.5 46.8% 34.7% 2.88 +34.8%

BTTS 65.7% 57.8% 1.73 +13.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob65.7%

H 56% / xG 2.2-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 9.4%

#2 1–1 8.7%

#3 2–0 6.9%

#4 3–1 6.8%

#5 1–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Macclesfield2.2

Southport1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.3% · O3.5 PROB 46.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MACCLESFIELD · PPG 1.77

SOUTHPORT · PPG 1.23

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.77) > Away AVERAGE (1.23)

Win probability 1X2

Macclesfield (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -9.4%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -23.1%

Southport (A) 23.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Macclesfield face Southport in England - National League - North on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Macclesfield a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Southport 24%, so Macclesfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Macclesfield and 1.4 for Southport (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Macclesfield are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.23 for Southport. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +34.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Macclesfield vs Southport Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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