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Hartlepool vs Southend Utd Prediction— England - National League

Regular Season - 41 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 18:45

Hartlepool

PPG 1.55 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

Southend Utd

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-114.7%0-210.1%0-34.7%0-4+2.2%1 1-09.2%1-112.6%1-28.7%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-03.9%2-15.4%2-23.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.1%3-11.6%3-21.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.4% 26.3% 3.80 -11.1%

Draw 27.6% 29.0% 3.45 -4.8%

Away win 49.0% 54.6% 1.83 -10.3%

Over 2.5 38.7% 56.5% 1.77 -31.5%

Over 3.5 18.8% 33.9% 2.95 -44.5%

BTTS 43.1% 59.9% 1.67 -28.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob43.1%

A 49% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.7%

#2 1–1 12.6%

#3 0–0 10.7%

#4 0–2 10.1%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hartlepool0.9

Southend Utd1.4

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.7% · O3.5 PROB 18.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HARTLEPOOL · PPG 1.55

SOUTHEND UTD · PPG 1.59

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.55), Away GOOD (1.59)

Win probability 1X2

Hartlepool (H) 23.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.1%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.8%

Southend Utd (A) 49.0%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hartlepool face Southend Utd in England - National League on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hartlepool a 23% chance, the draw 28% and Southend Utd 49%, so Southend Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Hartlepool and 1.4 for Southend Utd (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hartlepool are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.59 for Southend Utd. This match finished 4-3.

Hartlepool vs Southend Utd Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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