Hartlepool vs Southend Utd Prediction— England - National League

England - National League Regular Season - 41 Victoria Park· Hartlepool Tuesday, April 21, 2026 18:45

Hartlepool PPG 1.55

4-3 MISS

Southend Utd PPG 1.59

Draw· -4.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Hartlepool face Southend Utd in England - National League on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hartlepool a 23% chance, the draw 28% and Southend Utd 49%, so Southend Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Hartlepool and 1.4 for Southend Utd (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hartlepool are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.59 for Southend Utd. This match finished 4-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 23.4%

Odds: 3.80 EV: -11.1%

Draw 27.6%

Odds: 3.45 EV: -4.8%

Away 49.0%

Odds: 1.83 EV: -10.3%

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 38.7% Odds: 1.77 -31.5%

Over 3.5 18.8% Odds: 2.95 -44.5%

BTTS 43.1% Odds: 1.67 -28.0%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-1 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 0-2 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Hartlepool

0.86

Southend Utd

1.38

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5/Under 37%

BTTS/No 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 14.3%

Bet Hit 67% (15 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.55), Away GOOD (1.59)