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Perth vs Sorrento Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 07:00

Perth

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sorrento

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.3%0-21.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.8%1-17.9%1-24.6%1-31.8%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.2%2-19.5%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.6%3-17.6%3-24.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-18.1%4+-24.7%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.7% — — —

Draw 21.1% — — —

Away win 22.2% — — —

Over 2.5 67.3% — — —

Over 3.5 43.5% — — —

BTTS 61.3% — — —

Home O1.5 65.1% — — —

Away O1.5 35.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 3–1✓ 7.6%

#5 1–2 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Perth2.4

Sorrento1.2

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PERTH · PPG 1.60

SORRENTO · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.25 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Perth (H) 56.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sorrento (A) 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Perth face Sorrento in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Perth a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Sorrento 22%, so Perth are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Perth and 1.2 for Sorrento (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Perth are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.40 for Sorrento. This match finished 3-1.

Perth vs Sorrento Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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