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Cheltenham vs Tranmere Prediction— England - League Two

Regular Season - 40 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 18:45

Cheltenham

PPG 1.48 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tranmere

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+28.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.5%0-23.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.6%1-110.3%1-26.2%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.8%2-25.9%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.1%3-16.1%3-23.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.5%4+-22.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 43.9% 2.28 +22.0%

Draw 22.4% 30.8% 3.25 -27.2%

Away win 24.1% 32.3% 3.10 -25.3%

Over 2.5 59.7% 46.5% 2.15 +28.3%

Over 3.5 37.3% 25.0% 4.00 +49.2%

BTTS 59.3% 54.1% 1.85 +9.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.3%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 1–0 8.6%

#4 2–0 8.1%

#5 1–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cheltenham1.9

Tranmere1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CHELTENHAM · PPG 1.48

TRANMERE · PPG 0.95

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.48) > Away POOR (0.95)

Win probability 1X2

Cheltenham (H) 53.5%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +22.0%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -27.2%

Tranmere (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -25.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cheltenham face Tranmere in England - League Two on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cheltenham a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Tranmere 24%, so Cheltenham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Cheltenham and 1.2 for Tranmere (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cheltenham are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 0.95 for Tranmere. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +49.2%. This match finished 1-3.

Cheltenham vs Tranmere Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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