Today / England - League Two / Cambridge Utd vs Grimsby

Cambridge Utd vs Grimsby Prediction— England - League Two

Regular Season - 25 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 18:45

Cambridge Utd

PPG 2.29 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Grimsby

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-17.2%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.1%1-111.4%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-18.9%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.6%3-14.7%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-12.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.2% 55.2% 1.81 +5.3%

Draw 25.2% 27.8% 3.60 -9.3%

Away win 16.6% 23.8% 4.20 -30.3%

Over 2.5 39.8% 50.0% 2.00 -20.4%

Over 3.5 19.6% 28.2% 3.55 -30.4%

BTTS 40.1% 54.1% 1.85 -25.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob40.1%

H 58% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.1%

#2 2–0 12.7%

#3 1–1 11.4%

#4 0–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cambridge Utd1.6

Grimsby0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.8% · O3.5 PROB 19.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CAMBRIDGE UTD · PPG 2.29

GRIMSBY · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.29) > Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Cambridge Utd (H) 58.2%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV +5.3%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.3%

Grimsby (A) 16.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -30.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cambridge Utd face Grimsby in England - League Two on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cambridge Utd a 58% chance, the draw 25% and Grimsby 17%, so Cambridge Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Cambridge Utd and 0.7 for Grimsby (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cambridge Utd are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.57 for Grimsby. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Cambridge Utd vs Grimsby Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - League Two Predictions