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A. Italiano vs Union La Calera Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 00:30

A. Italiano

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDDL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Union La Calera

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 53.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-15.6%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.6%1-110.5%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.3%3-16.0%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-14.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 53.2% 1.88 +5.1%

Draw 22.2% 29.9% 3.35 -15.4%

Away win 21.9% 25.6% 3.90 -8.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 47.6% 2.10 +13.2%

Over 3.5 31.6% 27.0% 3.70 +16.9%

BTTS 53.0% 54.1% 1.85 -1.9%

Home O1.5 54.9% 48.8% 2.05 +12.6%

Away O1.5 22.6% 28.2% 3.55 -11.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.0%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 1–1 10.5%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0✓ 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Italiano1.9

Union La Calera0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

A. ITALIANO · PPG 1.50

UNION LA CALERA · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.03 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

A. Italiano (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV +5.1%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -15.4%

Union La Calera (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Italiano face Union La Calera in Chile - Primera División on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Italiano a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Union La Calera 22%, so A. Italiano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for A. Italiano and 0.8 for Union La Calera (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Italiano are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.78 for Union La Calera. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.9%. This match finished 0-0.

A. Italiano vs Union La Calera Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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