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Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 00:00

Leones del Norte

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Independiente del Valle

PPG 2.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-110.4%0-28.6%0-34.7%0-4+2.8%1 1-07.0%1-111.6%1-29.6%1-35.3%1-4+3.1%2 2-03.9%2-16.5%2-25.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.5%3-12.4%3-22.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.8% 18.9% 5.30 +31.6%

Draw 25.3% 27.4% 3.65 -4.6%

Away win 45.9% 60.6% 1.65 -24.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 50.0% 2.00 +7.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 28.6% 3.50 +10.6%

BTTS 54.7% 52.6% 1.90 +3.9%

Home O1.5 30.6% 25.0% 4.00 +22.4%

Away O1.5 48.5% 55.6% 1.80 -12.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.7%

A 46% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–1 10.4%

#4 0–2 8.6%

#5 2–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leones del Norte1.1

Independiente del Valle1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONES DEL NORTE · PPG 1.67

INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE · PPG 2.75

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.53 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Leones del Norte (H) 28.8%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV +31.6%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -4.6%

Independiente del Valle (A) 45.9%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -24.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leones del Norte face Independiente del Valle in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leones del Norte a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Independiente del Valle 46%, so Independiente del Valle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Leones del Norte and 1.6 for Independiente del Valle (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leones del Norte are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.75 for Independiente del Valle. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +37.2%. This match finished 2-3.

Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ecuador - Liga Pro Predictions