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Deportivo Cuenca vs Mushuc Runa SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 00:00

Deportivo Cuenca

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Mushuc Runa SC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-18.8%0-25.4%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.9%1-112.3%1-27.7%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.0%2-18.7%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.3%3-14.1%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 43.9% 2.28 -16.1%

Draw 25.5% 30.8% 3.25 -10.3%

Away win 37.7% 32.3% 3.10 +16.9%

Over 2.5 51.3% 47.6% 2.10 +7.7%

Over 3.5 30.9% 26.3% 3.80 +17.4%

BTTS 53.0% 55.6% 1.80 -4.6%

Home O1.5 40.0% 42.6% 2.35 -6.0%

Away O1.5 37.3% 34.5% 2.90 +8.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.0%

A 38% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–2 7.7%

#3 0–1 8.8%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 0–0✓ 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Cuenca1.4

Mushuc Runa SC1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO CUENCA · PPG 1.25

MUSHUC RUNA SC · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Cuenca (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -16.1%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.3%

Mushuc Runa SC (A) 37.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Cuenca face Mushuc Runa SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Cuenca a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Mushuc Runa SC 38%, so Mushuc Runa SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Deportivo Cuenca and 1.2 for Mushuc Runa SC (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Cuenca are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Mushuc Runa SC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Deportivo Cuenca vs Mushuc Runa SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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