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Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 22:00

Liverpool Montevideo

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWD

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Cerro

PPG 0.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-15.8%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.1%1-110.2%1-23.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.1%2-19.0%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.3%3-15.2%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-13.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.7% 62.1% 1.61 -7.1%

Draw 24.6% 29.0% 3.45 -9.1%

Away win 17.8% 17.9% 5.60 -0.2%

Over 2.5 50.1% 46.5% 2.15 +7.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% 25.3% 3.95 +6.6%

BTTS 47.6% 48.8% 2.05 -2.4%

Home O1.5 48.8% 52.6% 1.90 -7.3%

Away O1.5 17.1% 21.1% 4.75 -11.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.0%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.6%

H 58% / xG 1.8-0.6 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.1%

#2 2–0 14.1%

#3 1–1 10.2%

#4 0–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liverpool Montevideo1.8

Cerro0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LIVERPOOL MONTEVIDEO · PPG 1.18

CERRO · PPG 0.58

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Liverpool Montevideo (H) 57.7%

ODDS 1.61 · IMPLIED 62.1% EV -7.1%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.1%

Cerro (A) 17.8%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Liverpool Montevideo face Cerro in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liverpool Montevideo a 58% chance, the draw 25% and Cerro 18%, so Liverpool Montevideo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Liverpool Montevideo and 0.6 for Cerro (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liverpool Montevideo are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 0.58 for Cerro. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +9.7%. This match finished 4-0.

Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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