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Alianza Atletico vs Sporting Cristal Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 20:00

Alianza Atletico

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sporting Cristal

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+19.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-14.9%0-22.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.6%1-19.9%1-24.6%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.1%3-16.6%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-15.3%4+-22.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 35.5% 2.82 +49.7%

Draw 22.5% 30.8% 3.25 -16.1%

Away win 24.4% 40.7% 2.46 -24.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 50.0% 2.00 +19.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 29.0% 3.45 +26.3%

BTTS 54.7% 58.8% 1.70 -7.0%

Home O1.5 55.6% 39.2% 2.55 +41.8%

Away O1.5 25.7% 42.6% 2.35 -23.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 53% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–0 10.6%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 1–2 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alianza Atletico2.0

Sporting Cristal0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIANZA ATLETICO · PPG 1.90

SPORTING CRISTAL · PPG 0.55

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.07 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alianza Atletico (H) 53.1%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV +49.7%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -16.1%

Sporting Cristal (A) 24.4%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV -24.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza Atletico face Sporting Cristal in Peru - Primera División on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza Atletico a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Sporting Cristal 24%, so Alianza Atletico are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Alianza Atletico and 0.9 for Sporting Cristal (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza Atletico are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.55 for Sporting Cristal. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +62.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Alianza Atletico vs Sporting Cristal Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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