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Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

Al-Qadisiyah FC

PPG 2.01 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWW ·

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Al-Ittihad FC

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWD ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 62.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.2%0-22.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.3%1-19.1%1-25.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.8%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.4%3-17.1%3-23.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-16.3%4+-23.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 58.8% 1.70 -9.0%

Draw 24.2% 23.8% 4.20 +1.0%

Away win 22.3% 24.4% 4.10 -5.1%

Over 2.5 59.7% 69.4% 1.44 -14.0%

Over 3.5 36.6% 47.6% 2.10 -23.1%

BTTS 54.7% 69.4% 1.44 -21.2%

Home O1.5 62.3% 67.6% 1.48 -7.8%

Away O1.5 35.6% 41.7% 2.40 -14.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -30.3%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–2 5.0%

#5 3–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Qadisiyah FC2.2

Al-Ittihad FC1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-QADISIYAH FC · PPG 2.01

AL-ITTIHAD FC · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Al-Qadisiyah FC (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -9.0%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.0%

Al-Ittihad FC (A) 22.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Qadisiyah FC face Al-Ittihad FC in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Al-Ittihad FC 22%, so Al-Qadisiyah FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.1 for Al-Ittihad FC (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.01 points per game versus 1.44 for Al-Ittihad FC. This match finished 0-1.

Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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