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Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

Den Bosch

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWL ·

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC Eindhoven

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.7%0-23.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.6%1-110.3%1-27.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.9%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.1%3-15.7%3-23.9%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.9%4+-22.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 51.3% 1.95 -8.9%

Draw 24.3% 26.0% 3.85 -3.9%

Away win 28.9% 29.9% 3.35 -1.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 44.4% 2.25 -17.6%

BTTS 61.3% 69.4% 1.44 -11.7%

Home O1.5 49.5% 59.9% 1.67 -17.3%

Away O1.5 41.2% 44.4% 2.25 -7.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.3%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 1–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Den Bosch1.8

FC Eindhoven1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DEN BOSCH · PPG 1.42

FC EINDHOVEN · PPG 1.42

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Den Bosch (H) 46.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -8.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -3.9%

FC Eindhoven (A) 28.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Den Bosch face FC Eindhoven in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Den Bosch a 47% chance, the draw 24% and FC Eindhoven 29%, so Den Bosch are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Den Bosch and 1.4 for FC Eindhoven (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Den Bosch are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.42 for FC Eindhoven. This match finished 5-2.

Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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