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Santos U20 vs América-SP U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 13 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

Santos U20

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWW

7 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

América-SP U20

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-11.0%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.8%1-13.4%1-20.6%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.2%2-15.4%2-21.0%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-015.2%3-15.8%3-21.1%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-027.3%4+-110.4%4+-22.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.6% 91.7% 1.09 -16.5%

Draw 15.8% 10.5% 9.50 +30.1%

Away win 7.6% 5.9% 17.00 +17.5%

Over 2.5 65.0% 75.2% 1.33 -13.6%

Over 3.5 43.5% 55.6% 1.80 -21.7%

BTTS 43.6% 45.0% 2.22 -3.2%

Home O1.5 78.4% 87.0% 1.15 -9.8%

Away O1.5 11.1% 12.5% 8.00 -6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 117 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -47.8%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-0

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob43.6%

H 77% / xG 3.2-0.4 / O2.5 65% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 15.2%

#2 2–0 14.2%

#3 4–0 12.2%

#4 1–1 3.4%

#5 1–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santos U203.2

América-SP U200.4

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTOS U20 · PPG 2.00

AMÉRICA-SP U20 · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.83 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Santos U20 (H) 76.6%

ODDS 1.09 · IMPLIED 91.7% EV -16.5%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +30.1%

América-SP U20 (A) 7.6%

ODDS 17.00 · IMPLIED 5.9% EV +17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santos U20 face América-SP U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santos U20 a 77% chance, the draw 16% and América-SP U20 8%, so Santos U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Santos U20 and 0.4 for América-SP U20 (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santos U20 are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.00 for América-SP U20. This match finished 7-0.

Santos U20 vs América-SP U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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