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Santo André U20 vs São Caetano U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 13 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

Santo André U20

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

São Caetano U20

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a clear edge.

+13.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-14.3%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.1%1-19.3%1-24.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.9%3-17.1%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-16.2%4+-23.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 57.1% 1.75 -6.0%

Draw 22.5% 28.6% 3.50 -12.8%

Away win 23.7% 26.7% 3.75 -6.7%

Over 2.5 59.9% 54.1% 1.85 +10.8%

Over 3.5 36.8% 35.3% 2.83 +4.1%

BTTS 54.7% 61.3% 1.63 -10.8%

Home O1.5 59.6% 52.4% 1.91 +13.8%

Away O1.5 32.2% 36.8% 2.72 -12.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 117 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -47.8%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–2 4.7%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santo André U202.1

São Caetano U201.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTO ANDRÉ U20 · PPG 2.00

SÃO CAETANO U20 · PPG 0.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Santo André U20 (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -6.0%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -12.8%

São Caetano U20 (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santo André U20 face São Caetano U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santo André U20 a 54% chance, the draw 23% and São Caetano U20 24%, so Santo André U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Santo André U20 and 1.0 for São Caetano U20 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santo André U20 are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.20 for São Caetano U20. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Santo André U20 vs São Caetano U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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