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Referencia U20 vs Palmeiras U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 13 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

Referencia U20

PPG 0.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Palmeiras U20

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 66.7% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-118.2%0-217.1%0-310.7%0-4+7.7%1 1-04.4%1-18.3%1-27.8%1-34.9%1-4+3.5%2 2-01.0%2-11.9%2-21.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-00.2%3-10.3%3-20.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.2% 10.5% 9.50 +9.5%

Draw 21.1% 17.4% 5.75 +12.8%

Away win 66.7% 83.3% 1.20 -20.0%

Over 2.5 50.1% 63.7% 1.57 -21.3%

Over 3.5 28.1% 45.7% 2.19 -23.1%

BTTS 43.6% 49.0% 2.04 -11.1%

Home O1.5 28.6% 16.5% 6.05 +43.8%

Away O1.5 55.2% 76.9% 1.30 -28.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 117 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -47.8%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob43.6%

A 67% / xG 0.5-1.9 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2✓ 17.1%

#2 0–1 18.2%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 0–3 10.7%

#5 1–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Referencia U200.5

Palmeiras U201.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

REFERENCIA U20 · PPG 0.60

PALMEIRAS U20 · PPG 2.60

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.43 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Referencia U20 (H) 12.2%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +9.5%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +12.8%

Palmeiras U20 (A) 66.7%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Referencia U20 face Palmeiras U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Referencia U20 a 12% chance, the draw 21% and Palmeiras U20 67%, so Palmeiras U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Referencia U20 and 1.9 for Palmeiras U20 (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Referencia U20 are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 2.60 for Palmeiras U20. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +43.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Referencia U20 vs Palmeiras U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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