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FC Cajamarca vs Atletico Grau Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 17:00

FC Cajamarca

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Atletico Grau

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 49.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-17.1%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.4%1-111.4%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.1%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.6%3-14.9%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-12.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 49.5% 2.02 +5.9%

Draw 24.3% 30.3% 3.30 -11.9%

Away win 23.3% 27.4% 3.65 -9.0%

Over 2.5 50.1% 48.8% 2.05 +2.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% 26.7% 3.75 +3.2%

BTTS 49.1% 54.6% 1.83 -10.2%

Home O1.5 47.4% 46.5% 2.15 +1.9%

Away O1.5 17.9% 30.8% 3.25 -25.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.1%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.4%

#2 2–0 12.3%

#3 1–1 11.4%

#4 0–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Cajamarca1.6

Atletico Grau0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FC CAJAMARCA · PPG 1.18

ATLETICO GRAU · PPG 0.55

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Cajamarca (H) 52.4%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV +5.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.9%

Atletico Grau (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Cajamarca face Atletico Grau in Peru - Primera División on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Cajamarca a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Atletico Grau 23%, so FC Cajamarca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for FC Cajamarca and 0.7 for Atletico Grau (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Cajamarca are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 0.55 for Atletico Grau. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 1-3.

FC Cajamarca vs Atletico Grau Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions