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Sirius vs BK Hacken Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 18 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 17:00

Sirius

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

BK Hacken

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.3%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.8%1-16.2%1-24.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.6%2-18.6%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-06.0%3-17.8%3-25.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-08.0%4+-110.5%4+-26.9%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.4% 52.6% 1.90 +9.1%

Draw 20.4% 25.0% 4.00 -11.0%

Away win 22.2% 29.9% 3.35 -15.4%

Over 2.5 67.3% 71.4% 1.40 -5.8%

Over 3.5 47.5% 50.0% 2.00 -5.0%

BTTS 63.2% 73.5% 1.36 -14.1%

Home O1.5 65.1% 64.5% 1.55 +0.9%

Away O1.5 39.2% 48.8% 2.05 -19.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.2%

H 57% / xG 2.7-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.2%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 3–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 5.6%

#5 1–2 4.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sirius2.7

BK Hacken1.3

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SIRIUS · PPG 2.50

BK HACKEN · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.44 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sirius (H) 57.4%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +9.1%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -11.0%

BK Hacken (A) 22.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sirius face BK Hacken in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sirius a 57% chance, the draw 20% and BK Hacken 22%, so Sirius are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Sirius and 1.3 for BK Hacken (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sirius are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.50 for BK Hacken. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.6%. This match finished 0-3.

Sirius vs BK Hacken Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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