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Hillerod vs Lyngby Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Promotion Group - 26 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 18:00

Hillerod

PPG 1.83 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lyngby

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-18.6%0-27.1%0-33.9%0-4+2.3%1 1-06.8%1-111.2%1-29.3%1-35.1%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.4%2-17.3%2-26.0%2-33.3%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.9%3-13.2%3-22.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.3% 30.3% 3.30 -0.0%

Draw 24.1% 30.3% 3.30 -20.5%

Away win 45.6% 48.5% 2.06 -6.1%

Over 2.5 56.5% 51.3% 1.95 +10.2%

Over 3.5 34.1% 29.4% 3.40 +15.9%

BTTS 58.8% 57.8% 1.73 +1.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.8%

A 46% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 8.6%

#4 2–1 7.3%

#5 0–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hillerod1.3

Lyngby1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.5% · O3.5 PROB 34.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HILLEROD · PPG 1.83

LYNGBY · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.83), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Hillerod (H) 30.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -0.0%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -20.5%

Lyngby (A) 45.6%

ODDS 2.06 · IMPLIED 48.5% EV -6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hillerod face Lyngby in Denmark - 1. Division on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hillerod a 30% chance, the draw 24% and Lyngby 46%, so Lyngby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Hillerod and 1.6 for Lyngby (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hillerod are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.75 for Lyngby. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 1-3.

Hillerod vs Lyngby Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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