Today / Saudi-Arabia - Pro League / Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr

Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 16:00

Al Riyadh

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDW ·

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Al-Nassr

PPG 2.05 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWW ·

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-17.7%0-29.2%0-37.4%0-4+7.8%1 1-03.3%1-18.0%1-29.6%1-37.7%1-4+8.2%2 2-01.7%2-14.2%2-25.0%2-34.0%2-4+4.2%3 3-00.6%3-11.4%3-21.7%3-31.4%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% 9.3% 10.75 +29.0%

Draw 22.5% 17.2% 5.80 +18.3%

Away win 63.8% 80.0% 1.25 -20.3%

Over 2.5 59.9% 75.2% 1.33 -20.3%

Over 3.5 39.4% 55.6% 1.80 -29.1%

BTTS 54.7% 62.5% 1.60 -12.5%

Home O1.5 30.6% 27.8% 3.60 +10.2%

Away O1.5 65.4% 82.0% 1.22 -20.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -30.3%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob54.7%

A 64% / xG 1.0-2.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 9.2%

#4 1–3 7.7%

#5 0–3 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Riyadh1.0

Al-Nassr2.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AL RIYADH · PPG 1.29

AL-NASSR · PPG 2.05

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.36 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Riyadh (H) 13.8%

ODDS 10.75 · IMPLIED 9.3% EV +29.0%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +18.3%

Al-Nassr (A) 63.8%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Riyadh face Al-Nassr in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Riyadh a 14% chance, the draw 23% and Al-Nassr 64%, so Al-Nassr are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Al Riyadh and 2.4 for Al-Nassr (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Riyadh are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 2.05 for Al-Nassr. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +18.5%. This match finished 0-4.

Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Saudi-Arabia - Pro League Predictions