Today / Latvia - Virsliga / FS Jelgava vs Auda

FS Jelgava vs Auda Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 8 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 17:00

FS Jelgava

PPG 0.75 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Auda

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 82.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+38.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-115.1%0-218.1%0-314.5%0-4+15.5%1 1-02.3%1-15.5%1-26.6%1-35.3%1-4+5.6%2 2-00.4%2-11.0%2-21.2%2-31.0%2-4+1.0%3 3-00.1%3-10.1%3-20.1%3-30.1%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 4.0% 22.7% 4.40 -82.4%

Draw 13.1% 27.4% 3.65 -52.2%

Away win 82.9% 59.9% 1.67 +38.4%

Over 2.5 52.3% 56.5% 1.77 -7.4%

Over 3.5 30.1% 33.9% 2.95 -11.2%

BTTS 27.7% 58.8% 1.70 -52.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.4 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob27.7%

A 83% / xG 0.4-2.4 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 28%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 18.1%

#2 0–1 15.1%

#3 0–3 14.5%

#4 0–4 8.8%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FS Jelgava0.4

Auda2.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FS JELGAVA · PPG 0.75

AUDA · PPG 2.50

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

FS Jelgava (H) 4.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -82.4%

Draw 13.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -52.2%

Auda (A) 82.9%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +38.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FS Jelgava face Auda in Latvia - Virsliga on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FS Jelgava a 4% chance, the draw 13% and Auda 83%, so Auda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.4 for FS Jelgava and 2.4 for Auda (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 28% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FS Jelgava are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 2.50 for Auda. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +38.4%. This match finished 2-3.

FS Jelgava vs Auda Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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