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W. Burghausen vs Greuther F. B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 30 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 17:00

W. Burghausen

PPG 2.07 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Greuther F. B

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.5%0-23.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.5%1-111.2%1-26.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.8%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.3%3-15.7%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% — — —

Draw 23.7% — — —

Away win 23.1% — — —

Over 2.5 53.1% — — —

Over 3.5 30.9% — — —

BTTS 54.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.0%

H 53% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–0 10.5%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 0–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

W. Burghausen1.7

Greuther F. B1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

W. BURGHAUSEN · PPG 2.07

GREUTHER F. B · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Win probability 1X2

W. Burghausen (H) 53.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Greuther F. B (A) 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

W. Burghausen face Greuther F. B in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives W. Burghausen a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Greuther F. B 23%, so W. Burghausen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for W. Burghausen and 1.1 for Greuther F. B (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, W. Burghausen are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 0.71 for Greuther F. B. This match finished 1-3.

W. Burghausen vs Greuther F. B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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