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Vilzing vs Buchbach Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 30 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 17:00

Vilzing

PPG 1.43 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Buchbach

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-16.5%0-24.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.0%1-110.9%1-27.4%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.7%2-19.2%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.8%3-15.1%3-23.5%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.1%4+-22.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% — — —

Draw 23.8% — — —

Away win 31.2% — — —

Over 2.5 58.7% — — —

Over 3.5 36.3% — — —

BTTS 60.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.6%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 8.0%

#4 1–2 7.4%

#5 2–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vilzing1.7

Buchbach1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.3%

Form & verdict PPG

VILZING · PPG 1.43

BUCHBACH · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Vilzing (H) 45.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Buchbach (A) 31.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Vilzing face Buchbach in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vilzing a 45% chance, the draw 24% and Buchbach 31%, so Vilzing are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Vilzing and 1.4 for Buchbach (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vilzing are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.29 for Buchbach. This match finished 3-0.

Vilzing vs Buchbach Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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