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Nurnberg B vs Bayern Munich B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 30 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 17:00

Nurnberg B

PPG 2.36 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bayern Munich B

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.3%0-22.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.9%1-19.2%1-25.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.4%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.0%3-17.0%3-24.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-16.1%4+-23.5%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.4% — — —

Draw 20.5% — — —

Away win 20.1% — — —

Over 2.5 64.0% — — —

Over 3.5 41.9% — — —

BTTS 60.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.7%

H 59% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.8%

#2 1–1 9.2%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 7.9%

#5 3–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nurnberg B2.1

Bayern Munich B1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NURNBERG B · PPG 2.36

BAYERN MUNICH B · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.36) vs P(Home)=59.4%

Win probability 1X2

Nurnberg B (H) 59.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bayern Munich B (A) 20.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nurnberg B face Bayern Munich B in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nurnberg B a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Bayern Munich B 20%, so Nurnberg B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Nurnberg B and 1.2 for Bayern Munich B (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nurnberg B are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 1.00 for Bayern Munich B. This match finished 4-1.

Nurnberg B vs Bayern Munich B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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